IEA increases 2017 global oil demand outlook

Oil demand growth was revised higher to 1.6 million b/d.

U.S. President Donald Trump's promise of a "phenomenal" tax plan has helped revive a post-election rally in stocks, with Wall Street also reaching record highs. Analysts say continued production growth could cause OPEC members to rethink the current strategy. Meantime, these efforts were offset by increases from Iran, Nigeria and Libya that were permitted under the terms of the agreement.

This includes about 300 million barrels from the OECD and 100 million barrels from non-OECD.

The overhang is nearly evenly split between crude and liquids on one side and oil products on the other.

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After the end of the embargo, the Iranian ayatollahs have succeeded in increasing production only from 2.8 to 3.8 million barrels per day, but the problem is that, in such a market, the increase in supply immediately depresses the oil barrel price. I don't quite understand how it is possible, " Reuters reported on Friday, quoting a source in the Russian oil market.

Nevertheless, producers will probably have to extend the production cuts beyond six months if they want to achieve their goal of balancing the oil market.

OPEC's monthly oil market report and Feb.17 - first report from a committee in charge of monitoring compliance with oil cut deal - may place some upward pressure on fuel indexes. Data transparency and easy access can fool the casual observer that the oil markets are now still oversupplied, but to the keen observer, that is no longer the case and haven't been the case since March previous year. A year ago, world oil production stood at 96.4 million barrels a day.

According to Bloomberg, Wall Street has been investing the most money in oil and gas companies in the U.S. since at least 2000.

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Moreover, now Saudi Arabia has reached its maximum production level, but it may have technological capabilities to increase it by 25% for a short lapse of time.

Oil prices are today trading stronger, with Brent crude up 40 cents to $55.52 per barrel, and WTI crude up 51 cents at $52.84 per barrel. OPEC would have to throttle back even more to keep the market balanced, a burden that would fall mostly on the Saudis. It will not be an easy task. This could hit hard the revenues of oil producers of the gulf and many other countries besides creating unfavourable platform of lower oil prices to Saudi Aramco for valuation of its IPO, scheduled in 2018.

Not to mention the fact that the real data on Saudi oil and gas reserves is still a state secret in the country.

Growing production outside of OPEC could dampen the cartel's hopes to raise prices gradually over the coming years. While the missile tests didn't contravene the nuclear accord signed in 2015, they are seen by some as going against a United Nations Security Council resolution that enshrines the agreement. Eleven members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had agreed to pump less from January to raise prices.

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