Oil Prices Fell After OPEC's Forecast

Brent daily chart

The EIA also lowered its outlook for US oil production that might become more severe as shale procures are losing millions and can't find the money to complete rigs, and that means there could be another round of shale bankruptcies in the making.

"Each month something seems to come along to raise doubts about the pace of the rebalancing process", the International Energy Agency (IEA) report said.

As a result, it revised its demand forecast up marginally from the previous month.

On top of the USA data, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said its members' combined average daily output rose 1.4% last month to 32.6 million barrels.

"The fundamental difference is therefore leading to a tighter supply condition situation of the medium sour market, while a glut remains for the light sweet market based on S&P Global Platts", PublicInvest added.

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WTI held just above $45.00 at the USA open with Brent trading around $47.30 p/b. They had both traded at losses, about $1 lower than their recent price, before surging to gains around the traditional start of USA trading hours.

This will leave less space in the market for OPEC oil, the group concluded.

However, PublicInvest suggests OPEC is in a conundrum between fighting for market share by raising production or stabilising prices by maintaining cuts.

Whereas crude oil inventories in the United States dropped 7.6 million barrels in the week to July 7 to 495.35 million barrels, the biggest since the week ended September 4 suggesting that a decrease in the global glut is happening despite the current supply overhang.

On Wednesday, July 12, 2017, the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) released its weekly petroleum status report.

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The IEA on Thursday also called the change in demand "a dramatic acceleration".

OPEC and other major oil producers such as Russia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Brunei, Equatorial Guinea, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Oman, Sudan, and South Sudan reached an agreement in December 2016 to curb production by 1.8 million barrels a day from the market starting from January 2017.

"We have now witnessed two weeks in a row of massive USA inventory draws", analysts at Piper Jaffray Cos.' Simmons & Co.

There was evidence of strong important demand from China in June's trade data with average imports increasing to 8.55mn bpd during the first half of 2016, an increase of 13.8% from the same period in 2016.

In its monthly report, OPEC said its members' combined average daily output rose by 340,000 barrels a day, mainly from Libya and Nigeria. Canada and Brazil are likely to boost production as well.

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"We'll still have below the benchmark set for us by OPEC and I think that over the next one or two months, hopefully, we can get to that point when we can say the recovery has been tested, is systemic, and predictable".

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